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Saturday, June 02, 2007

SFO is sinking into the bay!


The headline in this morning's San Francisco Chronicle is dire: "Greenland ice melt speeds up. Warming: Trend is confirmed via satellite, flyovers."

The story goes on to tell us that NASA scientists reading signals from a satellite in orbit, and flying aboard a low-flying plane over Greenland, are finding fresh evidence of melting snows and thinning glaciers in vast areas of the massive island.

The melting of Greenland and the polar ice caps will significantly raise the level of the world's oceans. Florida is due for monumental change.

Disney World might be transformed into Disney's Atlantis Underwater World theme park. Floating hotels will allow guests to scuba dive down to where Disney World used to be. Imagine Mickey and Goofy with scuba tanks and flippers.

Maybe not. After all, who in the future is going to want to dive down to see late twentieth century glitz?

Well, maybe that idea is crazy, but what is not so nuts are the new sea level inundation maps prepared by the San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission.

Through their sea level rise mapping project, BCDC employed geographic information system software to identify the shoreline areas likely to be most impacted by sea level rise. The maps illustrate an impact scenario in which sea level rises one meter by the year 2100.

Now, don't think these maps should be used for planning purposes. These maps, although the very latest available, are based on USGS 2005 Urban Areas digital elevations and National Agriculture Imagery Program 2004 aerials. When the maps are re-done this year and in 2008, the shoreline areas impacted by sea level rise are expected to be much greater and more dramatic as scientists gather more accurate data about global change.

 Let's take a look at what San Francisco International Airport is going to look like in 2100. That's the map at the top of this story. Click on it to enlarge in a separate window.

The area in dark blue is the current boundary of the bay. The area in light blue is the area that will be below sea level and will be flooded by San Francisco Bay. As you can see, unless you are flying in a seaplane, you're not likely to land at SFO.

To more carefully compare the future SFO with the way it looks today, follow this link to a present-day aerial photo of SFO.

The good news for San Francisco is that very little of our land mass will be lost (SFO is actually just south of the San Francisco city limits). The projections for much of the East Bay and South Bay are not so good. See for yourself.

There are twelve maps produced by BCDC and you can see them all by following this link. There are two sizes available for each map. Choose the larger size. When it opens, click on it and it will enlarge in a separate window.
on Saturday, June 02, 2007

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