During winter Pacific storm season, many of us grow to appreciate the value of accurate and timely weather prediction. A new book from the National Research Council addresses how centers that produce climate predictions, such as seasonal hurricane or longer-term drought forecasts, could enhance understanding of key climate processes and improve forecasts through advancements in observational capabilities, statistical and dynamical models, and data assimilation systems.

More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help states, government organizations and cities plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically.

To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.

Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability